The State of the Leaf 2026: The Survey Begins
No public dataset describes the premium cigar industry as a whole. This winter we field the first annual survey of makers, retailers, and smokers. Here is what it will measure, and why.
The premium cigar industry runs on private knowledge. Import volumes are published for the United States, and even those were revised. Retail prices are visible but never aggregated. Nobody publishes what smokers actually buy, what retailers actually sell through, or what makers actually plan to plant. The State of the Leaf is our attempt to change that: an annual survey, fielded each winter, published each January, with the full dataset planned behind email capture once the newsletter launches.
Why it matters can be shown in one comparison. Published estimates of the global premium cigar market in 2025 range from $1.48 billion to $13.44 billion depending on who defines the category. A spread that wide is not a disagreement; it is an absence of measurement. And the hardest number in the business, the Cigar Association of America's US import figure, was quietly revised for 2023 from 467.57 million cigars down to 426.23 million after tariff-data misclassification came to light. If the best public figure needed that kind of correction, the industry deserves better instrumentation.
Three panels
The survey fields three panels. The maker panel covers production volumes, leaf sourcing by origin, labor and capacity, and the issues makers rank as their top risks. The retail panel covers sell-through by origin and price band, the movement of retail prices, inventory depth, and how the customer mix is changing. The consumer panel covers what smokers buy, where they buy it, what they pay, and how they learn.
Respondents are not named in the published data. Makers and retailers are reported in aggregate; no individual company's figures appear. Participation is free. No sponsor sees the data before publication, and no sponsor can buy a question.
What it will not do
The survey will not present estimates as measurements. Where the sample is thin, the report will say so, with the sample sizes printed next to the claims. Where a question cannot be asked cleanly, it will not be asked. The methodology, the questionnaire, and the response counts publish with the results, in January, alongside the first Golden Band judging.
The full dataset, tables and all, will sit behind email capture in The Index once the newsletter launches. The summary findings are free to every reader. If you make, sell, or smoke premium cigars, the survey wants you: the field period opens this winter, and the first edition of the State of the Leaf publishes in January.
Editorial descriptions of cigars, tobacco, origins and auction results are researched to professional standards but do not replace independent appraisal or authentication. See our Terms of Use.
